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We now re-examine the distributions from the point of view of estimating the crash point m C (Satoshi Dice games can be explained with the same mechanism). The true distribution of m C generated by the websites follow a power-law decay with an exponent of 2 (with some small deviation due to the house edge). Meanwhile, a closer look at the fitted exponents listed above gives us two empirical exponents of 1.423 and 1.881, both of which are smaller than 2. The smaller exponents reveal that gamblers believe that they have a larger chance to win a high-odds game than they actually do. Or equivalently, it means the gamblers over-weight the winning chance of low-probability games. At the same time, the “shifted” characteristics here lead to more bets on small odds, which also indicates that the gamblers over-estimate the winning chance of high-probability games. As a result, they under-weight the winning chances of mild-probability games. These are clear empirical evidence of probability weighting among gamblers, which is believed to be one of the fundamental mechanisms in economics 6 . Wealth distribution. In the previous study of skin gambling 8 , we pointed out that the wealth distribution of skin gamblers shows a pairwise power-law tail. This time, by considering the players’ deposits to their wallets on a gambling site as the wealth data, we find that the pairwise power-law tails are also observed for bitcoin gambling. We find that on the gambling website Coinroll, starting from 5660 cents, the players’ wealth distribution follows a pairwise power-law distribution, with the power of the first regime to be 1.585, and the power of the second regime to be 3.258, see Fig. 4. The crossover happens at 1.221 × 10 5 cents. As both wealth distributions of skin gambling and bitcoin gambling can be approximated by a pairwise power distribution, we believe that it is a good option for modeling the tails of gambler wealth distribution in different scenarios. Figure 4. The tail of the wealth distribution of Bitcoin gamblers follows a pairwise power-law distribution. Removing effects due to inequality in the number of bets. In the above sections, we have analyzed the distributions of several quantities at the population level. However, there is a huge inequality of the number of placed bets among gamblers. We therefore wonder whether those distributions we obtain result from the inequality of number of bets among individuals. To remove the effects of this inequality, we randomly sample in each dataset the same number of bets from heavy gamblers. We re-analyze the wager distribution and odds distribution with the sample data to see if we obtain the same distribution as before. In each dataset we randomly sample 500 bets from each of those gamblers who placed at least 500 bets above b min given in Table 1. Some datasets are excluded here as either they do not have enough data or we cannot identify individual gamblers. When re-analyzing the odds distribution, to ensure we have enough data, we respectively sample 100 and 2000 bets from each of those gamblers in games (C) and (F) who have at least 100 and 2000 valid player-selected odds above m min . According to the results in Fig. 5, after removing the inequality the wager distributions can still be approximated by log-normal distributions, but some deviation can be observed. Similarly, the odds distributions again follow truncated shifted power-law distributions after removing the inequality. These results demonstrate that the shape of the distributions we obtained in the above sections is not a result of the inequality of the number of bets. Figure 5. The wagers obtained from random sampling of top gamblers’ bets still present log-normal distributions, although there are some observable deviations, red queen बिटकॉइन लाइव सट्टेबाजी.
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